The trumpets of a Ukrainian conflict are sounding loud and clear. War is at our doorstep.
Here is the situation update, the possible outcome and the likely impact.
"Economy" Posts
Evergrande has defaulted. Now what?
China Evergrande Group has officially defaulted on $82 m of coupons.
Kaisa Group failed to repay a $400 m bond a few days before.
What happens now?
China Evergrande heads towards default
WSJ: The descent into default “is unlikely to cause much market turbulence.”
No doubt, a $300 bn default will be a walk in the park…???
The Turkish Lira keeps on falling
The intervention orchestrated by the Turkish Central Bank to sustain the Lira has turned ineffective. The Lira fell further.
Erdogan has therefore replaced his finance minister with an even more loyal executive.
Turkey’s fall
The Turkish Lira is free falling. It has been weakening for years (from parity to 12 TRY to the dollar), but the 15% fall on Tuesday is causing a lot of pain and concerns.
It could be intentional.
Evergrande default is highly likely, S&P says
This is not good. If you wanted a trigger for a recession, this could be it.
Standard & Poor’s says that Evergrande will default – it cannot sell new constructions.
Nigeria banned cryptos, introduces CBDC
Nigeria had banned cryptocurrencies earlier this year (to little effect). It has now introduced its CBDC, the eNaira. Currency and government stability are the likely reasons. Other countries will follow.
The pros and cons of crypto markets (vs. regulated markets)
There are structural issues in both the crypto and regulated worlds. But how deep and how frequent are they? Here is a review of Cryptos’ pros and cons.
Competition is for Losers
The most powerful cartels are perfectly legal, and far from James Bond villains. They are doctors, landlords, universities…
The world’s largest Ponzi is bursting – the Evergrande default
Evergrande, China’s second largest real estate, will default on bond payments in the coming days. The company, bloated with $300 bn of debt, is typical of the $62 trillion Chinese real estate sector.
Evergrande’ s default may bring the sector and the Chinese economy down with it.
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