If Putin wanted peace, we would have it by now.

Instead:

• Russia has now amassed up to 190,000 soldiers around Ukraine, says the OSCE. It is way more than what is needed for an exercise.
• The forces include 50% of its ground combat units. It is the largest gathering of Russian troops since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.
• The WSJ states that Russia is less dependent on the western economies than thought. It has started to diversify its oil exports to China. Its government debt as a % of GDP is low. It has strong reserves to support the Rubble.

• The Hill calls for freezing Russian oligarch money by blocking Cyprus’s entire offshore industry. The US has that legal banking weapon in the USA Patriot Act. Putin is the wealthiest man in the world. He would be personally impacted, which would have more effect than any economic sanctions against the country.

The Olympic Games are getting to an end. The international news will get busy and the markets will be volatile next week…

References

• The Hill, February 17, 2022, Time to use the Patriot Act against Putin’s Russian elite
• Business Today, February 18, 2022, Russia has gathered up to 190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine: US
• Business Insider, February 18, 2022, UK intelligence says Russia has 50% of its ground combat units on Ukraine’s border
• The Wall Street Journal, February 22, 2022, How Much Could Sanctions Hurt Russia’s Economy?