Putin’s blitzkrieg plans for a regime change have met an efficient defense. He lacks air superiority and his logistics are deficient. His panzers have stopped. Most cities are under Ukrainian control. Meanwhile, international sanctions are swifter and much heavier than expected. He has protesters at home.
Did he get into an expensive quagmire?
If Putin wanted peace, we would have it by now.
Instead…
The trumpets of a Ukrainian conflict are sounding loud and clear. War is at our doorstep.
Here is the situation update, the possible outcome and the likely impact.
China Evergrande Group has officially defaulted on $82 m of coupons.
Kaisa Group failed to repay a $400 m bond a few days before.
What happens now?
WSJ: The descent into default “is unlikely to cause much market turbulence.”
No doubt, a $300 bn default will be a walk in the park…???
Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Luckily, the human race learns a few things sometimes.
We certainly need those lessons to handle the current Ukrainian situation.
The intervention orchestrated by the Turkish Central Bank to sustain the Lira has turned ineffective. The Lira fell further.
Erdogan has therefore replaced his finance minister with an even more loyal executive.
The Turkish Lira is free falling. It has been weakening for years (from parity to 12 TRY to the dollar), but the 15% fall on Tuesday is causing a lot of pain and concerns.
It could be intentional.
This is not good. If you wanted a trigger for a recession, this could be it.
Standard & Poor’s says that Evergrande will default – it cannot sell new constructions.
Nigeria had banned cryptocurrencies earlier this year (to little effect). It has now introduced its CBDC, the eNaira. Currency and government stability are the likely reasons. Other countries will follow.
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