Ukraine’s military successes are causing quite a stir inside its main opponents. Russia, China and Iran, the new Axis of Authoritarians, are all facing internal protests.

Mobilization, protest and exodus in Russia

• The Russian Duma blocked the country’s frontiers to prevent Russian men from leaving the country. 24 hours later, Putin declared a partial mobilization. 300,000 reservist men are called to serve. A hidden clause would permit 1 million in total.
• Russians have descended on the streets. Despite the media controls, it is evident that hundreds of arrests followed, now carrying jail sentences of up to 15 year. Public protesters are rumored to have been served mobilization papers upon arrests and quickly sent to the military regiments. The mobilization is described as disorganized and chaotic.

• There are large traffic jams at the frontiers. All plane tickets to non-visa neighbors were instantly sold out.  Europe must decide if it will open its frontiers to the draft dodgers.
• The political cost for Putin is high. The economic impact will be important. Both the Euro and the ruble tumbled, but the long term damage to Russia is yet to be determined.

• Western analysts consider this a display of weakness, which will not significantly influence the Ukraine war. Deploying badly selected, untrained and unequipped soldiers will make them cannon-fodder more than influence the likely outcome – that Russia cannot win this war.

Russia stepping up in Ukraine

• Putin is said to getting involved in the management of the war, giving direct instructions to his generals. That has always a great recipe for success…
• He also promoted a supposed ‘butcher’ as deputy defense minister.
• Putin would have survived an assassination attempt two weeks ago. He is now in retreat at one of his palaces during the street protests.
• Meanwhile, prominent Russians keep on dying in mysterious circumstances.

International reactions

• Russia is starting referendums in the occupied Ukrainian territories, which would let it declare itself under threat, hence justifying the use of nuclear force.
• The White House stated that it will never recognize the ‘sham’ votes. The G7 agrees.
• The US also stated that breaking the taboo of nuclear strikes would bring worldwide condemnations and the strongest reactions against Russia (but intentionally did not disclosed what they would be).
• Russia was called for accountability at the UN’s Security Council, notably for war crimes. Lavrov arrived late, criticized the council and left early.

• Even India and China criticized Putin to his face during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit last week.

Protests in Iran

• Iranian women also stepped into the streets as well, following a young Kurdish woman’s death at the hands of the religious police. Women burn their hijabs to fight the religious intolerance.
• The president has vowed to enforce calm and order.
• The internet and electronic communications have been cut. 80 cities are supposed in riots. Shots have been heard. There would be dozens of civilian deaths, if not hundreds.
• Iran accuses Western countries of interference.

And a coup in China?

• And now, Xi Jinping is rumored to have been deposed in a coup. He would have been assigned to house arrest upon his return from the SCO summit.
• 6,000 internal flights (59%) have been suspended.
• General Li Qiaoming would be assuming powers.
• Chinese officials deny.

Russia, China, and Iran, the new Axis of Authoritarians, isn’t doing too well… Is that the cost of oppressing populations for decades? Or the positive side-effect of the Ukrainian war?

Sources:

• NDTV, September 16, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War: Russian President Vladimir Putin Survives Assassination Attempt: Report (ndtv.com)
• Telegraph India, September 18, 2022, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) – India, China opposition to Russia’s war on Ukraine leaves Putin even more isolated – Telegraph India
• Al-Jazeera, September 21, 2022, Putin’s plan: What does partial mobilisation mean? | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera
• The New York Times, September 22, 2022, Lavrov Blasts Zelensky and Ukraine at UN Security Council Meeting – The New York Times (nytimes.com)
• US State Department, September 22, 2022, Secretary Antony J. Blinken at the United Nations Security Council Ministerial Meeting on Ukrainian Sovereignty and Russian Accountability – United States Department of State
• The Globe and Mail, September 23, 2022, Video: Russian conscription prompts exodus – The Globe and Mail
• NY Magazine, September 23, 2022, Prominent Russians Keep Dying Under Mysterious Circumstances (nymag.com)
• The White House, September 23, 2022, Statement from President Biden on Russia’s Sham Referenda in Ukraine – The White House
• Politico, September 24, 2022, G7 leaders condemn ‘sham’ referendums in occupied Ukraine – POLITICO
• iNews, September 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin sacks another general as he takes a more active role in Ukraine war (inews.co.uk)
• Outlook India, September 24, 2022, Fact Check: Is China Having A Coup And Is Xi Jinping Under House Arrest? Here’s What We Know (outlookindia.com)
• Times of India, September 24, 2022, Xi Jinping: Internet rumours of Xi Jinping removed in coup, no official word from Beijing | World News – Times of India (indiatimes.com)
• Money Control, September 24, 2022, ‘China Coup’ trends on Twitter as rumours emerge about Xi Jinping’s house arrest (moneycontrol.com)
• The New York Times, September 24, 2022, Protests in Russia Against Putin’s Mobilization Policy Continue – The New York Times (nytimes.com)
• BBC, September 24, 2022, Ukraine ‘referendums’: Soldiers go door-to-door for votes in polls – BBC News
• Newsweek, September 24, 2022, Russian ‘Butcher’ General Promoted, Will Build ‘Slaughterhouse’: Ukraine (newsweek.com)
• The US Sun, September 24, 2022, Butcher of Mariupol who bombed maternity ward & theatre promoted in Putin’s desperate bid to turn the tide in Ukraine | The US Sun (the-sun.com)
• New York Times, September 24, 2022, Why Iranians Are Protesting Once Again – The New York Times (nytimes.com)
• Wio News, September 24, 2022, Anti-Hijab protests spread to 80 cities in Iran – World News (wionews.com)
• CNN, September 25, 2022, Protests, drafting mistakes and an exodus: Putin’s mobilization off to chaotic start | CNN
• MSN, September 25, 2022, Officials Say Putin Is ‘Struggling Badly’ Based On Russia’s Latest Actions (msn.com)
• The Washington Post, September 25, 2022, Russian mobilization blasted as as staged referendums continue – The Washington Post
• The Washington Post, September 25, 2022, Russian mobilization blasted as as staged referendums continue – The Washington Post
• Business Insider, September 25, 2022, PHOTOS: Putin Escapes to Secret Palace Amid Anti-Draft Protests – Report (businessinsider.com)
• Reuters, September 25, 2022, Iran will act decisively after biggest protests in years, president says | Reuters
• Reuters, September 25, 2022, Iran protests Western stance on mass protests over woman’s death | Reuters